Research Papers
A Retreat from Opportunity: Is the Canadian Dream Still Alive?
Drawing on Canadian evidence, this report argues intergenerational mobility is declining and purchasing power is squeezed by housing, debt, and rising living costs. It links reduced opportunity to inequality and policy-created barriers in housing, education, post-secondary training, licensing, immigration alignment, and tax-benefit clawbacks, proposing reforms to restore meritocracy for Canadians.
DownloadHow Canadian Childcare Became Politically Untouchable
This study analyzes Canada’s $10-a-day childcare rollout (CWELCC). Fees fell for families with regulated spots, but demand surged faster than supply, leaving provinces behind space targets and longer waitlists. Federal conditions favour non-profit, centre-based, credentialized care, squeezing home and for-profit providers. The paper argues that this model is politically untouchable and costly
DownloadCanada’s Future (Might Be) Conservative: A Look at Falling Birth Rates Among Progressives
This study finds that birth rates and family formation are significantly higher in Conservative-leaning Canadian ridings than in Liberal or NDP ones. Differences in education, housing costs, marriage rates, job security, and climate anxiety help explain the divide, with long-term implications for Canadian politics, culture, and national cohesion.
DownloadHow to Build an AI Economy that Benefits Both Companies and Canadian Workers
This study examines how Canada can harness AI for productivity and wage growth while managing labour-market disruption. It contrasts U.S. growth-first and worker-protection approaches, reviews evidence on task displacement and entry-level risks, and shows Canada’s rising adoption but weak literacy, calling for large-scale training, job redesign, and rapid worker transitions.
DownloadWho Makes up Canada’s Conservative Coalition and is it Changing?
Using Canadian Election Study data from 1997–2021, Routley finds Canada’s Conservative coalition remains “fusionist,” uniting social traditionalism and economic liberalism—unlike realignments in the U.S. and U.K. The study argues this stability reflects Canada’s stagnation-driven grievances, where deregulation, competition, and cost-of-living politics still command broad, cross-class appeal today, in the nationwide electoral landscape.
DownloadThe Effect of Immigration on Social Trust
Canada is a historically high-trust society, where generalized trust underpins prosperity and democratic stability. Reviewing global evidence, the study finds immigration can temporarily depress trust but converge over generations when institutions integrate newcomers well. Today’s unprecedented scale, speed and geographic concentration of immigration threaten that equilibrium, risking declining social trust.
DownloadFixing the Stagnation Nation: A Blueprint for Canadian Economic Renewal
This study diagnoses Canada’s structural stagnation: weak productivity, overexposure to U.S. trade shocks, and a housing affordability collapse. It proposes a renewal blueprint—pro-growth tax reform, better-matched immigration, heavier business investment, trade infrastructure upgrades and internal liberalization, and assertive zoning/density reforms—aimed at restoring per-capita prosperity, inclusive competitiveness, and long-term economic resilience
DownloadAssessing Media Coverage of Supervised Consumption Sites
This study analyzes Canadian supervised consumption sites, tracing federal support, provincial pushback, and recent court rulings. A content analysis of major outlets after Ontario’s 2025 injunction finds coverage overwhelmingly quotes proponents, reinforcing a sanitized federal narrative. Despite judicial wins, policy is shifting toward recovery-focused hubs as provinces reframe harm reduction policies.
DownloadDeveloping Canadian Foresight Capabilities
This report assesses Canada’s current foresight and forecasting infrastructure, reviews established tools (scenario planning, decomposition, crowdsourcing, AI-augmented analysis), and identifies gaps in institutional capacity. It argues for coordinated investment in methodological training, platforms, and culture to enable Canada to anticipate and respond to complex global challenges.
DownloadThe Future of Canada-US Trade
This study applies foresight methods to Canada–U.S. trade, decomposing key drivers (USMCA review, macroeconomics, geopolitics, elections, domestic politics) and building five plausible scenarios. It argues that Canada is likely to face protracted, sector-specific tensions rather than a full trade collapse, and urges stronger forecasting capacity.
DownloadTrump’s Big Beautiful Bill Means Canada Falls Further Behind in Race to Attract Top Talent
The United States Congress recently passed President Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill,1 which among things extended and made permanent the income tax rate reductions and revised tax brackets first implemented in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.2 This should raise alarm bells for policymakers north of the border as Canada will continue to have uncompetitive personal income tax rates compared to our American counterparts, and fall even farther behind in the race to attract entrepreneurs, professionals, investors and top talent.
DownloadReimagining Canada’s Federal Government Through DOGE With a Heart
In reimagining the purpose of government today, it would be remiss not to talk about the role of modern technology in accelerating change—data integration, mobile services, cloud, and AI. However, what matters is not just technology itself, but rather the psychology and ethos of what the private sector technology world has achieved. W
DownloadUnder Pressure: How Immigration Is Becoming a Political Fault Line in Canada
As part of Pollara’s 40th anniversary retrospective, we will explore these emerging divisions. We begin with one of the most politically charged and socially consequential issues facing the country: immigration.
DownloadA $100 Billion Plan to Transform and Diversify Canada’s Trade Infrastructure
To meet the economic moment and the ambition expressed by Canadians in the last election, it is proposed that the Prime Minister consider and announce a $100 billion Canada Trade Diversification Plan, a Canadian ‘Marshall Plan’ scale transformation of Canada’s economy
DownloadCanada’s Universities Fail Civic Education: Establishing Schools of Civics in Alberta Is a Model for Canada
Declining public confidence in Canada’s universities clarifies just how badly they need reforms, particularly in the humanities and social sciences. T
DownloadHow Free and Trusted Can Canada’s Media Be if They Are Dependent on Government Subsidies?
This essay seeks to do two things: first, it catalogues the myriad government policies that directly or indirectly subsidize private news outlets in Canada. Second, it explores how News Media Canada, the industry’s main advocacy group, has publicly lobbied for increasing government support over the last several years, including on the eve of the election.
DownloadFrom Price Tags to Pay Cheques: Why the Bank of Canada Should Adopt an NGDP Target
Despite the success inflation targeting has had over the last 30 years, it is time for a change.
DownloadThe Troubled History of Canadian Economic Nationalism
The analysis shows that embracing economic nationalism will only make us poorer. If policymakers are serious about righting Canada’s growth trajectory, then a policy path of economic openness is the correct choice.
DownloadTime to Move From Talk to Action on Regulatory Reform
We aim to set out some concrete principles and policies for an agenda that expedites the regulatory process while honouring our collective responsibility to respect Indigenous rights and assuring Canadians that high environmental standards will be maintained.
DownloadHow the Online News Act Has Harmed Journalistic Objectivity
My analysis of news coverage of Google’s $100 million deal shows concerns about media coverage have been borne out.
DownloadFive Years On: Assessing Canada’s Performance During the COVID-19 Pandemic
The following essay aims to contribute to our understanding of Canada’s pandemic experience and our collective response. In particular, it profiles five key statistics telling five key stories from the COVID-19 pandemic, five years on.
DownloadCanada and the Changing World Order: The Future of Canadian Foreign Policy
The Centre for Civic Engagement is publishing a new essay series to grapple with these seismic changes and offer a new clear-headed direction for Canadian foreign policy. This edited volume considers the broad future of Canadian foreign policy
DownloadCanada and the Changing World Order: A New Era for Canadian Defence Policy
This edited volume considers the future of Canadian defence policy
DownloadCanada and the Changing World Order: Navigating Trade Policy in Turbulent Times
This edited volume considers the future of Canadian trade policy.
DownloadAmerica Is Actively Choosing Decline; It’s Time for Canada to Adapt to a Changing World Order
The Trump administration’s destabilizing actions are motivated in part by a reconceptualized view about American power and its role in the world. Our policymakers must therefore begin thinking about Canadian interests in a new global order.
DownloadCutting the Smart Way: A Plan to Cut Federal Finances to More Sustainable Levels
The key to meeting Carney’s or Poilievre’s ambitious fiscal targets will be a systematic approach to both reviewing existing spending and controlling future spending. As discussed below, such an approach must target ineffective program spending as well as inefficient government operations. The goal should be to reconceptualize both what the government does and how it does it.
DownloadReflecting on Canada’s Fiscal Past: An Assessment of the Fiscal Performance of Canadian Prime Ministers
With a new Prime Minister arriving and an election potentially on the horizon, now is as a good a time as any to assess the economic and fiscal performances of Canada’s prime ministers
DownloadMining: Canada’s New Engine of Growth
Mining’s resurgence stands out as an example for Canada’s many struggling industries that positive market conditions can follow even the harshest of decades. The goal here is to profile its experience and draw on its lessons for other parts of the economy.
DownloadUnderstanding the Costs of Supply Management
This essay discusses the persistent problems with the supply management system and presents a path forward.
DownloadMoving Into Uncharted Waters: How Canada Could Benefit From a Clearly Defined Population Policy
It is argued here that any future Canadian government would be well served in carefully developing a “distinctly Canadian population policy.”
DownloadThe Three Keys to Airline Deregulation in Canada
With a new federal government likely on the horizon and affordability being an important issue in the eyes of voters, pursuing the policy reforms of ending cabotage restrictions, removing foreign ownership limits, and privatizing airports could bring much-needed competition to the airline industry while lowering prices for Canadians.
DownloadIs It Time for a Carbon Policy Time Out?
Canada’s energy industry needs a carbon policy “time out.”
DownloadWhy Bill C-11’s Misdiagnosed Canada’s Broadcasting Woes
More than 18 months later, implementation of the bill has been a regulatory mess, marked by multiple court challenges and the prospect of trade battles that have been exacerbated by the imminent return of President Donald Trump to the White House.
DownloadUnlocking Growth: Liberalizing Canada’s Telecom Sector for Dynamic Competition
This paper outlines amendments to the foreign ownership restrictions under the Telecommunications Act as well as accompanying changes to spectrum and wholesale policies that would need to be part of an overall agenda to open up the industry.
DownloadWhy Canada Doesn’t Need Another Broadband Provider
While Canada faces unique broadband challenges, none of them can be solved by government fiat
DownloadAssessing the Immigrant Share of Canada’s Population
This paper argues that the number of Canadians born abroad could actually be approaching ten percentage points higher (8-9 percent) once you fully account for non-permanent residents, overlooked residents, and undocumented residents to Canada.
DownloadMarket-Based Competition and the Canadian Telecommunications Sector
This study offers an alternative conception of competition than the prevailing one in Canada based less on the number of market participants per se and instead focused on creating the conditions for greater market-based competition in the industry.
DownloadEstimating the Impact of the Capital Gains Tax Increase on Canada’s Economy
The purpose of this latest paper therefore is to better understand the economic effects of the capital gains tax increase—with a focus on investment, jobs and GDP.
DownloadFour Policy Priorities for Parliament’s Return
In order to situate the fall parliamentary sitting, we’ve compiled four short essays from leading experts on some of the policy issues that are likely to animate its deliberations.
DownloadHas the Recent Surge in Immigration to Canada Affected Productivity?
In this paper we ask whether these two phenomena of falling productivity and rising immigration are connected. More specifically, has the surge in immigration had anything to with Canada’s disappointing productivity performance?
DownloadExploring the State of Physician Supply in Canada
This paper aims to assess whether Canada actually has a physician supply problem and provide an overview of the burdens that Canadian physicians face.
DownloadTwo-Parent Families in Canada
This paper looks at the historical trends in the distribution of children across different family types and considers how this distribution differs across provinces. It then discusses how family structure impacts fertility rates—currently at an all-time low in Canada. Finally, we will see how Canada compares to peer countries: the US, the UK, France, Germany, and Italy.
DownloadGovernment Support and Trust in the Canadian News Media
Canadians are losing their trust in the media.
DownloadWhat a Pro-Growth Tax Reform Might Look Like
It’s time for a growth-oriented tax reform to minimize economic distortions and maximize the potential for innovation and investment to support a thriving, dynamic economy.
DownloadThe Capital Gains Tax Hike Will Hurt the Middle-Class Too
The analysis shows that the effect of the capital gains tax affects not just the wealthy but many middle-class and even Canadians with modest incomes.
DownloadInflation and Affordability in Canada: Problems and Solutions
The burning issue right now in Canada is the cost of living – and it’s not going away anytime soon.
DownloadHow Happy are Canadians?
A key question pervading our politics is: how are Canadians doing?
DownloadThe Contribution of Natural Resources to Canada’s Economy
It’s increasingly recognized in policy and political circles that one of the biggest challenges facing the country is economic stagnation and declining living standards.
DownloadWhat is the State of Canadian Defence Spending?
The current state of Canada’s military and defence spending has been the subject of international criticism and a source of growing isolation from key allies.
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